The hottest wind power industry has entered the er

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The wind power industry has entered the era of full competition. 70% of the red line has become a chicken rib

in mid January, the National Energy Administration officially decided to cancel the policy that the localization rate of wind power equipment should exceed 70%. A person in charge of the wind energy professional committee of the China Renewable Energy Society told the China Securities Journal: China's wind power industry has experienced five years of development, and has become an industry leader. The layout of the industrial chain is also fully opened. It will not be reversed because of the cancellation of such policies. However, some insiders pointed out that China's wind power industry will enter an era of all-round competition, and enterprises in the industry will encounter a shuffle process of survival of the fittest

Before 2005, there were only a few wind power manufacturers in China, with small scale and backward technology. Foreign funded enterprises occupied most of the market, and the construction of wind farms mainly depended on imports. In order to ensure that China's local wind power manufacturing enterprises can establish market competitiveness and that the domestic sunrise industry of wind power will not be fully occupied by foreign capital, the notice of the national development and Reform Commission on relevant requirements for wind power construction management issued in 2005 stipulates that the localization rate of wind power equipment should reach more than 70%, and wind farms that do not meet the requirements of equipment localization rate are not allowed to be constructed

it is this policy that directly encourages China to launch large-scale wind power projects. According to the statistics of China Wind Power Association, in 2008, China added 6.25 million kw of wind power installed capacity, an increase of 88.42% year-on-year, and the cumulative installed capacity reached 12.15 million KW; It is estimated that by the end of 2009, the installed capacity of wind power in China will reach 20million kW, an increase of 8million kW over the previous year

such a huge market in China is bound to attract great interest from foreign-funded enterprises. However, due to the limitation of 70% localization rate, these foreign-funded enterprises are unlikely to enter the Chinese market. It seems that the red line with a localization rate of 70% protects domestic enterprises in China

for our wind power plant owners, we mainly consider stability and price. In fact, we don't pay much attention to whether it is domestic or not. These are all completed by a general contractor in the bidding. A person in charge of Cathay Pacific wind power plant in Inner Mongolia told China Securities Journal. The wind farm is 100% owned by poly GCL energy, with a total installed capacity of 49.5mw

however, the person in charge also admitted to the China Securities Journal that there is a mystery about how to define the concept of localization rate of 70%. As long as those produced in China are domestic, but the core components are all foreign companies, and they are only assembled and produced in China. The only value is to temporarily slow down the overall competition

zhao Xueyong, chief expert and technical director of Bosch Rexroth AG (Bosch Rexroth) wind power business in China, said that the localization rate of 70% is actually not easy to calculate. At present, the so-called localization rate in China has reached 70%-80%. In fact, it is mostly concentrated on equipment with low technical content, and most of the key equipment with high technical standards such as gear boxes and controllers still rely on foreign imports

it is understood that the early domestic 750kW mainstream models were all licensed by European enterprises including Germany. In addition, it is understood that foreign-funded companies also generally enter China in the form of joint ventures, which are counted as the localization rate of 70%

the head of the aforementioned wind energy professional committee told China Securities Journal that the localization rate of 70% is only a stage policy, and the essence depends on how much we master

according to China Securities News, as early as November 2009, the Energy Administration convened a number of wind power equipment manufacturers to discuss the cancellation of localization rate internally; Then, the notice of the national development and Reform Commission on canceling the requirements for the localization rate of purchased equipment for wind power projects began to be fully distributed to the development and reform commissions at all levels at the end of December

the strong should calm down and respond

with the support of the localization rate policy, the market share of domestic enterprises has increased rapidly, from less than 50% in 2006 to 68.4% in 2008. Among them, the top three are Sinovel 22.45%, Goldwind technology 18.12%, Dongfang Electric 16.86%. After the fourth place, the market share is not high, Zhejiang Yunda 3.73%, Shanghai Electric 2.86%

nowadays, the cancellation of the localization rate policy may have an impact on enterprises that do not have scale and technical strength, but it has little impact on these enterprises that have already ranked among the industry leaders

in an interview with China Securities Journal, WISCO, chairman of Goldwind technology, said that the cancellation of 70% localization rate of wind power equipment has little impact on the company, because the company's wind turbine equipment has achieved a localization rate of 80%-90%, and the company's products and technology have achieved certain advantages at home and abroad

he said that at present, the company's wind power equipment products have a market share of more than 20% in China, and the company has also made good progress in exploring foreign markets. Among them, the projects invested and built by the company in the United States have been put into operation, and the company's 2.5 MW wind turbines also have a leading level in foreign markets

canceling the localization rate of 70% in China is not only conducive to the competition of domestic enterprises, but also conducive to domestic enterprises going out. WISCO explained that China first canceled the protection policy, and the possibility of domestic companies encountering the protection policy of other countries will be greatly reduced when exploring foreign markets

according to the latest data of the wind energy association, at present, the localization rate of 600kW and 750kW units can reach 90%, and the localization rate of 1.5MW units can also reach 70%

from the perspective of the whole industrial chain, the market share of domestic enterprises is very high. It seems that the overall situation has been set, and three obvious leading enterprises have been formed. However, it is still necessary to divide the industrial chain. The head of the wind energy professional committee said

the whole wind power manufacturing industry can be divided into: the production system of blades, gearboxes, generators, towers, control systems and other major components. According to the report released by Guodu securities in the fourth quarter of 2009, among the cost structure of wind turbines, blades are 20%, gearboxes are 15%, motors are 12%, bearings are 8%, towers are 13%, nacelle covers are 9%, control systems are 8%, and others are 15%

Shanghai FRP Research Institute Co., Ltd. is the top 10 blade manufacturing enterprise in China, with an annual production of about 300 sets of 1.5MW fan blades. Maopengling, the chief engineer of the company, told China Securities News that the localization rate of the leaves produced by the company itself is very high, and the actual impact is very small. However, the profits will be thinner and thinner in the future. From the perspective of the whole industrial chain, the domestic machine assembly manufacturers will suffer the most, because they will not enjoy the subsidies

analysts familiar with wind power components in the industry told China Securities Journal that China's generator industry has a good foundation and there are many manufacturing enterprises, including CSR, CNR and Harbin Electric Machinery Co., Ltd., which can mass produce 750kW, 1.5MW motors for fans. However, the main bearing of the wind turbine is an important part that is relatively lacking

it is worth noting that most of the models that have been put into installation in recent years are 600kW and 750kW, accounting for about 2/3 in total. At present, the international mainstream has entered 1.5MW, 2MW, or even greater. In this regard, Chinese enterprises including Goldwind technology and Shanghai Electric have launched prototypes, but the overall industrialization level and overall design ability are still quite far behind foreign advanced enterprises

the reshuffle is imminent

I'm on my way to Huaneng Jilin Tongyu wind farm. This time for our company, it's a big bill, and the total amount of the whole project is 10million. As a fan supporting enterprise, Shanghai xiruishi such door plate tire parts (as shown in the figure) have adopted the deputy general manager of natural kenaf Material Industry Co., Ltd. fan Zhaoji is going to the project base in Jilin to negotiate this successful start

wind turbine suppliers such as Lao fan are the most sensitive to the changes in China's wind power market, and the frontline is feeling the changes in China's wind power market. Now the bidding price of the whole wind power project is getting lower and lower. Now the price has reached 4800 yuan/kW, and it was still 5300 yuan/kW last September. In fact, there is no profit, unless the production scale can reach 2000 units. Fan Zhaoji told the China Securities Journal

according to the data released by the National Energy Administration last December, there are currently more than 80 wind turbine manufacturers in China, and about 25 manufacturers can enter the bidding of wind power concession projects. The introduction of the bidding mechanism for wind power concession projects aims to increase competition, reduce wind power tariffs, and improve the localization rate of equipment, but it also brings some negative effects, such as vicious competition for resources

the facts are far crueler than previously expected. In 2008, the installed cost of wind power was 6500 yuan/kw. Last year, the price has been reduced to 5400 yuan/kw, a decrease of about 17% over a year. According to the calculation of United Securities, the price war in 2009 has reduced the gross profit margin of the industry by about 15% compared with 2008

according to the calculation of the kilowatt hour income model of wind power, when the kilowatt hour income of wind farms with 2400 hours and 2000 hours is 0.55 yuan/kWh and 0.65 yuan/kWh respectively, the internal rate of return of 8% can be maintained. However, it is obvious that the profitability condition of ensuring an internal rate of return of 8% can no longer be met

in addition, at the end of last year, dozens of wind power CDM projects in China were rejected or postponed, which made the profitability of wind power even worse. It is estimated that the revenue contribution of wind farm CDM project is 0 095 yuan/kWh, which has a great impact on the installed capacity of wind power

at the same time, China's wind power operators generally prefer low prices for equipment bidding, which also leads to more fierce competition among equipment manufacturers. However, Zhao Xueyong reminded that the expected service life of wind turbines is 20 years. If the equipment purchased by the operator is unstable and has frequent quality problems, it will bring extremely expensive maintenance costs to the wind farm

corresponding to the fierce competition, at several information conferences held by the Ministry of industry and information technology and the National Energy Administration in the second half of last year, two Japanese Toray launched a new textured nylon material, salacona, which mentioned the problem of overall overcapacity in the wind power industry. On December 30, 2009, Shi Lishan, deputy director of the new energy department of the national energy administration, said that China will strictly control the capacity growth of the wind power industry. At the same time, the government will support the mergers and acquisitions in the wind power sector, hoping to produce a wind power equipment enterprise that ranks among the top ten in the world

some analysts believe that the cancellation of the localization rate policy is consistent with curbing overcapacity in the industry

in Zhao Xueyong's view, the cancellation of the 70% proportion will not bring significant impact in a short time, because many equipment manufacturers can also obtain good orders through low-cost competitive advantage. However, in the long run, wind farms will undoubtedly improve the requirements for equipment quality in the future. At present, such signs have emerged. At that time, industry participants with insufficient financial strength and insufficient technical strength, It may be merged or have to withdraw from the market due to scarce orders

in this year's market environment, the industry reshuffle is inevitable, and there will be no more than 10 complete machine manufacturers with certain market competitiveness left. Fan Zhaoji told the China Securities Journal

observation: competition will be extremely cruel

the cancellation of the policy of 70% localization rate of fan equipment is sooner or later. It seems that now is a good time

it has been nearly five years since the national development and Reform Commission issued the notice of the national development and Reform Commission on the relevant requirements of wind power construction management in 2005. During this period, the installed capacity of domestic wind power increased from 7.64 million kW in 2004

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