The hottest wind power industry risk accumulation,

2022-10-15
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Risk accumulation in the wind power industry requires caution in winning the bid at a low price

risk accumulation in the wind power industry requires caution in winning the bid at a low price

source: wind power headline 09:46:40

key words:

the current bidding market for wind power equipment is extremely eye-catching, and relevant parties strive to improve the competitiveness of wind power and promote industrial development through the marketization of power trading. However, under the appearance of prosperity, some problems caused by winning the bid at a low price are looming. In order to reduce costs, developers try their best to lower the unit price, while machine manufacturers adopt ultra-low price strategy to cater in the fierce competition

a wind power economic evaluation expert revealed that the average market price of 2MW units has fallen from 4000 yuan/kw to about 3200 yuan/kw in the past year, and even lower than 3000 yuan/kw, a decrease of more than 20%. The cost of raw materials is rising, and the increase of steel in the same period is as high as about 30%

with each passing day, the whole wind power industry chain is under high pressure. Not long ago, a leaf enterprise announced that its first half performance suffered a loss, which was caused by the decline in product prices and the rise in bulk materials. Recently, some top machine manufacturers have been funded by the media one after another. The gold chain is tense, and the risks that have been gathering for a long time are gradually threatening to come

the war of low price is still in our ears.

the sharp fluctuations in the last round of wind power industry since 2008 are still vivid: after years of rapid development, China's wind power accidents occurred frequently in 2011, and China's wind power began to enter a long winter

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Yang Xiaosheng, chairman of the wind energy equipment branch of China Agricultural Machinery Industry Association, recalled that the main reason for the cold winter in the market was irregular, unfair and excessive low price competition. Under the pressure of market competition, machine manufacturers have been competing at low prices. The price per kilowatt fell sharply from more than 6000 yuan in 2008 to more than 3000 yuan in 2012. Machine manufacturers lack reasonable profit space, and there is no way to talk about technology investment and sound development

the impact of the above winter on the wind power industry can still be seen many years later. At that time, a series of quality accidents broke out because of the excessive pursuit of scale and the low price strategy, while ignoring the quality of equipment; And there was tension and even fracture in the capital chain, which was eventually abandoned by the market. According to statistics, after the above-mentioned winter period, the number of wind turbine manufacturers with batch delivery capacity in China has dropped by more than 30%

to make matters worse, because some complete machine manufacturers have lost the ability of quality assurance service and technical support, a large number of units purchased at a low price cannot be solved after quality problems occur, making it difficult for the project to operate normally, and there is no unreasonable customer loss. Even if the developer recovers some losses by offsetting the quality assurance deposit, it still needs to operate these inefficient assets for more than 15 years

behind a cold winter, it reflects the disadvantages of focusing on scale, low price and light quality in the development of wind power at that stage. Another five years have passed, and the price of wind turbines has fallen sharply again. Under the accumulation of risks, the wind power industry has entered the consolidation period again

who should bear the responsibility for the risk accumulation

as a series of problems surfaced, the risks associated with winning the bid at a low price became clear. According to people familiar with the matter, since 2016, a project in a high shear transformation area has encountered problems such as longitudinal cracking of the foundation of multiple units, boiling at the bottom of the tower and so on, and has had to operate with power curtailment all the time. In 2018, the same manufacturer's unit in Hebei and Henan two projects, there were blade swept to the tower drum fracture accident

according to the analysis, the causes of the above-mentioned accidents are the same, which are caused by the worrying technical quality of the equipment. In order to reduce the project investment and equipment production cost, the whole machine manufacturer has excessively reduced the consumption of raw materials for the tower and blades on the premise of insufficient design capacity

previously, the media has exposed that some machine manufacturers have greatly misreported power generation in order to improve the bid winning rate. According to professional estimates, at present, the maximum CP value of mainstream wind power models is within 0.47, but if the maximum comprehensive CP value is marked as more than 0.5, it is equivalent to misrepresenting the equivalent hours of 100 hours. In the actual bidding process, a complete machine manufacturer provided a CP value of more than 0.52, even higher than the theoretical maximum value of 0.593

although the equipment cannot achieve such power generation capacity after operation, the equipment supplier has realized the bidding premium by misrepresenting the power generation, which can offset part of the quality assurance deposit. Disclosed by a professional who knows the truth

what's more, some manufacturers have made an issue of product configuration in order to reduce production costs. The configuration of key components of the unit is completely different from that during type approval, and the component supplier is replaced. This does not meet the requirements of the state compulsory type certification and power company, let alone any quality assurance

in addition, the bigger hidden worry is that some machine manufacturers avoid being eliminated in order to get the project, and sell units below the cost price. Once the machine manufacturers with weak overall strength have capital chain problems, they will inevitably bring long-term negative impact to the project

multiple precautions, stable and Zhiyuan

senior wind power insiders know that winning the bid at a low price is no longer new, and relevant problems have been reported repeatedly around 2010. The difference is that the problems and coping methods embodied in each stage of industrial development are constantly changing and fission. Limited to institutional obstacles, at this stage, it seems that winning the bid at a low price is still difficult to be cured. Of course, investors cannot give up eating because of choking. A better way is to curb risks through optimized management, so as to achieve stability and long-term development

according to the analysis of an insider who is familiar with the way of wind power development, aiming at the risk prevention of winning the bid at a low price at this stage, which will affect the safety of modern residents, we can focus on two aspects

on the one hand, we should pay attention to the integrity of our partners. In the face of the temptation of low prices, investors need to have a clear understanding of the partners, especially the integrity and even the business situation. For example, through the evaluation of its business credit, credit rating, solvency, etc., we can comprehensively judge its credit and business level. For the consistency of delivery and certification configuration, the more important thing is how to apply past experience to the bidding work. For example, it is a more direct and effective self-protection mechanism to establish a list of qualified and trustworthy suppliers, determine the relevant parameters of each manufacturer, and apply them to the bidding process through post evaluation of the operated projects, rather than simply relying on the manufacturer's commitment

on the other hand, it is to evaluate the ability of partners. With the gradual implementation of the bidding policy, investors must change their focus from the initial investment cost to the full life-cycle kwh cost of wind power projects, especially the control value of equipment operation and maintenance cost. Based on the longer-term plan for the operation of 40 ~ 77hrd projects, it is necessary for wind power developers to make institutional arrangements for them when selecting partners. Then, when choosing a partner or bidding, the evaluation of the technical quality ability of the machine manufacturer can be taken as a factor of higher priority rather than a price factor. Moreover, it is also necessary for developers to identify the R & D capability, substantive guarantee capability, service guarantee capability, anti risk capability, etc. of machine manufacturers, and select their peers in the next 20 years by refining the evaluation criteria

only considering the price, without considering the bidder's credit, the reasonable cost and profit of quality guaranteed goods or services, and without considering the subsequent performance and after-sales, then winning the bid at the lowest price is enough to lead to the canceration of market order. Zhong Wei, a professor and economist at Beijing Normal University, believes that

don't forget the past, the teacher of the future. Today, with the rapid accumulation of industry risks and the squeeze on the survival space of enterprises caused by bidding, it is particularly valuable to maintain the pursuit of high quality and long-term income to clarify that the valve port has occupied the initial position

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